Black Children Lead Autism Diagnosis Surge

New CDC data reveals a dramatic shift in autism diagnosis patterns across America, with Black children now showing the highest prevalence rates in multiple regions.

The findings, released last week in the CDC’s biennial surveillance report, show overall autism rates have climbed to 1 in 31 children aged 8 years – a significant increase from the 1 in 36 rate reported in 2020.

The Maryland study site, led by researchers at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School’s Wendy Klag Center for Autism and Developmental Disabilities, found Black children had the highest autism rates in the region at 1 in 27, followed by Asian/Pacific Islander (1 in 32), multiracial (1 in 34), Hispanic (1 in 35), and white (1 in 52) children.

This pattern disrupts decades of autism diagnosis trends that historically identified white males as the predominant demographic. “Years ago, we only knew that autism was impacting white males. This latest ADDM report, along with the one released in 2023, show that autism impacts everyone—including females and children from all racial and ethnic backgrounds,” explains Elise Pas, research professor at Bloomberg School’s Department of Mental Health and co-principal investigator of the Maryland ADDM Network site.

The report examined data from 16 study sites across the U.S., finding autism prevalence varies dramatically by region – from just 0.97% in Laredo, Texas to 5.3% in California. This regional variance suggests significant differences in identification practices, healthcare access, and service availability across communities.

For investors tracking healthcare and education market opportunities, this shifting demographic landscape signals potential areas for growth and innovation. The historically underserved populations now showing higher autism rates represent markets where specialized services may be underdeveloped relative to emerging needs.

The data indicates that among children with autism and available cognitive assessments, 39.6% were classified as having intellectual disability (IQ ≤70). Black children with autism showed the highest rates of co-occurring intellectual disability at 52.8%, compared to 32.7% of white children – pointing to either later diagnosis, reduced access to early intervention services, or potentially social determinants of health affecting development.

Encouragingly, the report shows progress in early identification. Children born in 2018 (now age 4) were 1.7 times more likely to be identified with autism by 48 months than children born in 2014 (now age 8). This acceleration in early diagnosis could drive increased demand for early intervention services and technologies.

Christine Ladd-Acosta, associate professor in the Bloomberg School’s Department of Epidemiology and co-principal investigator, notes: “The data suggest that we are identifying children earlier, which should translate into needed supports for children and their families sooner, which will help them achieve their full potential.”

The male-to-female prevalence ratio continues to narrow – from 4.2 in 2018 to 3.4 in 2022 – suggesting improved recognition of autism in girls, though absolute prevalence remains significantly higher in boys.

Socioeconomic patterns have also reversed compared to earlier decades. Previous research consistently showed higher autism rates in affluent communities, but the 2022 data found either higher prevalence in lower-income neighborhoods or no association with income level in most communities.

From a market perspective, these findings point to changing service needs. The reversal of socioeconomic and racial patterns suggests improved access to diagnostic services among previously underserved groups, which will likely drive increased demand for support services in these communities.

Interestingly, while the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted evaluation services in early 2020, the data shows diagnoses quickly rebounded. Telehealth evaluations appeared in 8.7% of records for children born in 2018, indicating rapid adaptation to remote assessment methods – a potential growth area for digital health firms specializing in developmental assessments.

For technology developers, the report highlights significant variability in diagnostic practices across regions. Different assessment tools dominate in different locations, with some communities heavily utilizing standardized instruments like the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (found in 39.6% of records overall) while others rely on alternative methods.

The CDC findings underscore that autism affects all demographic groups and is increasingly being recognized as such. As identification continues to improve, particularly among historically underserved populations, demand for specialized educational services, behavioral therapies, and assistive technologies is likely to grow substantially in previously under-penetrated markets.

As developmental screening becomes more widespread and equitable, the true prevalence of autism across all demographics may become clearer, potentially leading to more targeted interventions and market opportunities for companies serving these communities.